Hello, everyone! I hope you’re managing to stay strong despite the current market turmoil. To start, I’d like to ask, “How have you been, and how is your portfolio looking?” I suspect your portfolio may not be doing too well, as we are both feeling the market’s bearish impact.
At the moment, the market is in freefall, and it seems unending. Since late January, Bitcoin has dropped from $109,600 to $83,600, and panic is already starting to set in.
So don’t panic yet, because you are not alone in this. The big question now is, should we consider selling our crypto assets or accumulating more?
But before you panic, let me explain why I am not overly concerned about this dip, especially when I reflect on the events of 2017.
Now, you may ask, what happened in 2017? In a moment, we will get to that by analyzing charts and historical trends to discuss why this market dip may not be as severe as it seems.
I understand that the market conditions are not the same as in 2017, and that’s perfectly fine. However, history provides valuable insights for predicting the future.
So, we have observed that the 2025 trend is mimicking the 2017 bull market trend. And even during the explosive 2017 bull run, we had instances where the market dipped over 30%, similar to what we are experiencing now.
And just a few days ago, we saw nearly a billion dollars in liquidations, which has dragged the entire cryptocurrency market down. Now, the pressing question is:
What is driving this massive drop?
Well, it’s a combination of several factors, including a tariff war that’s affecting the stock market, the recent meme coin craze, and major exchanges liquidating their assets.
These elements have contributed to widespread panic, but amidst the chaos, there are still positive developments, such as Bitcoin holding strongly above $80,000 (See the chart below) and whales accumulating Bitcoin.
For instance, Citadel — a significant player in traditional finance — is entering the crypto space.
Also, Michael Saylor continues to buy more BTC. And he recently tweeted his intention to hold, indicating he’s not planning to sell anytime soon. However, whether his actions are beneficial or detrimental to the market is a discussion for another time.
While we encourage you to accumulate Bitcoin and top-performing altcoins, avoid storing large amounts of crypto on exchanges. Instead, consider getting a few cold storage wallets like a and Trezor and distribute your assets among them. This is the best way to take responsibility for your investments and ensure the security of your assets.
Now, Let’s Compare the Similarities Between the 2017 and 2025 Bull Markets
First, let’s take a moment to review historical trends. In 2017, Bitcoin experienced a 240% price increase in the year following its halving, while altcoins surged by 474% in just two months at the end of the year.
So, if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern in 2025, which is also a post-halving year, we could see comparable explosive growth in the latter part of that year. See the chart below.
But, while I recognize that history doesn’t always repeat itself, this model has guided us during the current bull run. Thus, we are optimistic that this bull market will extend into late 2025 and early 2026.
For perspective, even during the 2017 bull run, there were multiple pullbacks. Yet, Bitcoin yielded over 19x.
Now, here’s a closer look at 2017’s price fluctuations:
In…
- January: 38% decrease
- March: 33% decrease
- May: 38% decrease
- June: Around (30–32)% decrease
- July: 18% decrease
- August: 19% decrease
- September: 40% decrease
- November: 30% decrease
- December: Multiple drops, including a 22% and a 45% decrease.
Despite these frequent and substantial pullbacks, Bitcoin’s overall performance in 2017 was remarkable.
It started the year at around $1,000 and peaked at approximately $19,300 by December 17th, resulting in a 19x increase.
This historical data suggests that the current dips in Bitcoin and altcoins should not cause excessive worries.
But while market conditions differ from 2017 because of factors like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, you must learn to stay calm and avoid panic selling.
Currently, the entire market is down, with many altcoins experiencing double-digit losses. For instance, Solana crashed from $296 to $130, which liquidated long-leverage traders, a fate that befell many altcoins in our portfolios.
On a positive note, Bitcoin has shown resilience, finding support at the 200-day EMA on the daily timeframe. So, we will monitor whether it can hold above $80,000 before the market reverses to the upside.
Now, You May Ask, What’s Next for Crypto?
Well, we can not predict the future with certainty.
Luckily, the foundation for a strong crypto industry remains intact. And Bitcoin isn’t disappearing anytime soon.
Hence, when the market stabilizes, we plan to dollar-cost average into our favorite cryptocurrencies, including ONDO, SUI, PEAQ, VIRTUAL, SOL, MERL, ETH, BTC, and a few others.
Recently, we took advantage of the dips in Bitcoin, buying below $87,000 while keeping an eye on the altcoin market.
At the moment, there is high uncertainty in the market, and retail investors are becoming fearful. This presents a great opportunity for you to purchase Bitcoin for the long term. See the Fear & Greed Index chart below.
Although the price is currently above $85,000, the Fear & Greed Index is around 10%. The last time we saw this level of extreme fear was in 2022, when Bitcoin traded below $25,000.
This implies that it might be a good time to apply the dollar-cost average method to Bitcoin and a few top altcoins as we approach a potential market bottom.
I believe the next 8 to 10 months could lead to exponential returns for the cryptocurrency market. To benefit, you must get involved now while prices are down.
But if you’re feeling overwhelmed, it’s perfectly okay to take a break from crypto and focus on something else. Avoid constantly checking your portfolio. Instead, try to concentrate on the bigger picture. The crypto market is far from over in 2025 — if anything, it’s just getting started.
So, stay strong and get ready to ride the next wave up!
See you soon,
Jonas for Crypto Big Stories.
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